SV Darmstadt 98 2–0 FC Wurzburger Kickers

SV Darmstadt 98

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Wurzburger Kickers

F. Platte 90+4'

T. Kempe 55'

12/19/2020

2. Bundesliga · Round 13Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

SV Darmstadt 9856%

×Draw23%

FC Wurzburger Kickers21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV Darmstadt 98Expected goals in this matchFC Wurzburger Kickers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.02

SV Darmstadt 98

1.84

FC Wurzburger Kickers

1.02

SV Darmstadt 98 creates 80% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 28 away

1.79

creates per match

0.93

1.11

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

SV Darmstadt 98

1.79

FC Wurzburger Kickers

0.93

allows per match

SV Darmstadt 98

1.11

FC Wurzburger Kickers

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SV Darmstadt 98+0.00on par

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Darmstadt 98 ↓

FC Wurzburger Kickers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

SV Darmstadt 98 or draw

79%

SV Darmstadt 98 or FC Wurzburger Kickers

77%

Draw or FC Wurzburger Kickers

44%

Winning margin

SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+

32%

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals

84%

SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals

55%

SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals

28%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals

64%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals

27%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)

73%

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Darmstadt 98 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.11 · 117 matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.89 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.79 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.84

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 0.93 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

SV Darmstadt 98 scores more

56%

level

23%

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more

21%

SV Darmstadt 98 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "SV Darmstadt 98 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

T. Kempe

SV Darmstadt 98 · F

7.9

Match Events

19'

Fabian Holland

49'

Mitja Lotrič

55'

T. Kempe↳ Paik Seung-Ho

75'

V. Nikolov← R. Munsy

75'

C. David← M. Lotrič

80'

E. Berko← Paik Seung-Ho

80'

84'

86'

90'

90+2'

A. Stanilewicz← T. Kempe

90'

E. Verstappen← T. Kraulich

90+4'

F. Platte↳ E. Berko

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SVFC

Overview

72%Possession28%

23Total Shots9

5Corners4

15Fouls15

Shots

23Total Shots9

6On Target3

8Off Target5

9Blocked1

13Inside Box4

10Outside Box5

Passing

72%Possession28%

625Total Passes237

554Accurate Passes155

89%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3