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FC Wurzburger Kickers vs SV Darmstadt 98 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
SV Darmstadt 98
SV Darmstadt 98
L. Dietz 63'
F. Platte 90+3'
T. Skarke 79'
S. Dursun 45+1' (pen)
4/20/20212. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 30flyeralarm-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers33%
×Draw23%
SV Darmstadt 9843%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.48
SV Darmstadt 98
1.72

SV Darmstadt 98 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 117 away

creates per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.29
SV Darmstadt 98
1.50

allows per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.94
SV Darmstadt 98
1.66

finishing

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par
SV Darmstadt 98+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Wurzburger Kickers ↓

SV Darmstadt 98 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FC Wurzburger Kickers or draw
57%
FC Wurzburger Kickers or SV Darmstadt 98
77%
Draw or SV Darmstadt 98
67%

Winning margin

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
15%
SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
77%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
43%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
19%
SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals
82%
SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals
51%
SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
43%
SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Wurzburger Kickers at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

SV Darmstadt 98 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.66 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 1.29 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.48

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.50 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
33%
level
23%
SV Darmstadt 98 scores more
43%

SV Darmstadt 98 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SV Darmstadt 98 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
C. KlausSV Darmstadt 98SV Darmstadt 98 · G
7.7

Match Events

41'
Rajiv Van La Parra
44'
Lars Dietz
45'
Arne Feick
45+1'
S. DursunPenalty
53'
Rolf Feltscher
58'
T. Skarke← M. Honsak
63'
L. Dietz
64'
D. Baumann← D. Meisel
67'
Rajiv Van La Parra
67'
Rajiv Van La Parra
77'
F. Ronstadt← R. Munsy
79'
T. Skarke
82'
C. Clemens← E. Berko
82'
M. Mehlem← T. Kempe
89'
Serdar Dursun
89'
Serdar DursunGoal cancelled
89'
F. Platte← S. Dursun
90+3'
F. Platte↳ M. Mehlem

Possession

55%FC

Shots

15FC

Pass accuracy

53%FC

Statistics

FCSV
Overview
55%Possession45%
15Total Shots13
10Corners3
9Fouls8
Shots
15Total Shots13
7On Target3
2Off Target5
6Blocked5
9Inside Box9
6Outside Box4
Passing
55%Possession45%
445Total Passes366
355Accurate Passes260
80%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
0Saves6
Discipline
9Fouls8
5Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
1Offsides1

2. Bundesliga: FC Wurzburger Kickers 1–3 SV Darmstadt 98

SV Darmstadt 98 beat FC Wurzburger Kickers 3-1 in 2. Bundesliga on April 20, 2021.

Goals: S. Dursun (45+1' pen), L. Dietz (63'), T. Skarke (79'), F. Platte (90+3').

FC Wurzburger Kickers controlled possession (55%) and registered 15 shots to 13.

The match was played at flyeralarm-Arena in Würzburg.