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SV Breinig vs Friesdorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

SV Breinig
SV Breinig
CANC
13:30
Friesdorf
Friesdorf
12/6/2020Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 12Sportplatz Breiniger Berg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

SV Breinig41%
×Draw21%
Friesdorf38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Breinig
2.00
Friesdorf
1.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 36 away

creates per match

SV Breinig
1.50
Friesdorf
1.36

allows per match

SV Breinig
2.45
Friesdorf
2.50

finishing

SV Breinig+0.00on par
Friesdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Breinig ↓

Friesdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

SV Breinig or draw
62%
SV Breinig or Friesdorf
79%
Draw or Friesdorf
59%

Winning margin

SV Breinig wins by 2+
23%
Friesdorf wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

SV Breinig 1+ goals
86%
SV Breinig 2+ goals
59%
SV Breinig 3+ goals
32%
Friesdorf 1+ goals
85%
Friesdorf 2+ goals
57%
Friesdorf 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

SV Breinig (draw refunded)
52%
Friesdorf (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Breinig at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.45 · 20 matches

Friesdorf away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Breinig attack 1.50 + Friesdorf defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Friesdorf attack 1.36 + SV Breinig defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

SV Breinig scores more
41%
level
21%
Friesdorf scores more
38%

SV Breinig at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "SV Breinig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: SV Breinig host Friesdorf

December 6, 2020: SV Breinig take on Friesdorf in Oberliga - Mittelrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

SV Breinig host Friesdorf at Sportplatz Breiniger Berg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.