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Friesdorf vs SV Breinig — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Friesdorf
Friesdorf
FT
6 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
SV Breinig
SV Breinig
4/24/2022Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 27Sportzentrum Friesdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Friesdorf52%
×Draw20%
SV Breinig28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Friesdorf
2.35
SV Breinig
1.70

Friesdorf creates 38% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 20 away

creates per match

Friesdorf
1.91
SV Breinig
1.15

allows per match

Friesdorf
2.25
SV Breinig
2.80

finishing

Friesdorf+0.00on par
SV Breinig+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Friesdorf ↓

SV Breinig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Friesdorf or draw
72%
Friesdorf or SV Breinig
80%
Draw or SV Breinig
48%

Winning margin

Friesdorf wins by 2+
32%
SV Breinig wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Friesdorf 1+ goals
90%
Friesdorf 2+ goals
68%
Friesdorf 3+ goals
41%
SV Breinig 1+ goals
82%
SV Breinig 2+ goals
51%
SV Breinig 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Friesdorf (draw refunded)
65%
SV Breinig (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Friesdorf at home — creates 1.91, concedes 2.25 · 32 matches

SV Breinig away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.80 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Friesdorf attack 1.91 + SV Breinig defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.35

SV Breinig attack 1.15 + Friesdorf defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Friesdorf scores more
52%
level
20%
SV Breinig scores more
28%

Friesdorf at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Friesdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Friesdorf vs SV Breinig

Friesdorf beat SV Breinig 6-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Friesdorf in Bonn.