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SV Breinig vs Alfter — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

SV Breinig
SV Breinig
FT
1 – 2
Alfter
Alfter
8/19/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 2Sportplatz Breinig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

SV Breinig31%
×Draw22%
Alfter47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Breinig
1.62
Alfter
2.02

Alfter creates 25% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 19 away

creates per match

SV Breinig
1.50
Alfter
1.58

allows per match

SV Breinig
2.45
Alfter
1.74

finishing

SV Breinig+0.00on par
Alfter+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Breinig ↓

Alfter →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

SV Breinig or draw
53%
SV Breinig or Alfter
78%
Draw or Alfter
69%

Winning margin

SV Breinig wins by 2+
15%
Alfter wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

SV Breinig 1+ goals
80%
SV Breinig 2+ goals
48%
SV Breinig 3+ goals
22%
Alfter 1+ goals
87%
Alfter 2+ goals
60%
Alfter 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

SV Breinig (draw refunded)
40%
Alfter (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Breinig at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.45 · 20 matches

Alfter away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Breinig attack 1.50 + Alfter defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.62

Alfter attack 1.58 + SV Breinig defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SV Breinig scores more
31%
level
22%
Alfter scores more
47%

Alfter at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Alfter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: SV Breinig 1–2 Alfter

Alfter beat SV Breinig 2-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on August 19, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz Breinig in Rhld..