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Alfter vs SV Breinig — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Alfter
Alfter
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
SV Breinig
SV Breinig
2/23/2022Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 19Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Alfter57%
×Draw20%
SV Breinig23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alfter
2.24
SV Breinig
1.35

Alfter creates 66% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 20 away

creates per match

Alfter
1.68
SV Breinig
1.15

allows per match

Alfter
1.55
SV Breinig
2.80

finishing

Alfter+0.00on par
SV Breinig+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfter ↓

SV Breinig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Alfter or draw
77%
Alfter or SV Breinig
80%
Draw or SV Breinig
43%

Winning margin

Alfter wins by 2+
35%
SV Breinig wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Alfter 1+ goals
89%
Alfter 2+ goals
65%
Alfter 3+ goals
38%
SV Breinig 1+ goals
74%
SV Breinig 2+ goals
39%
SV Breinig 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Alfter (draw refunded)
72%
SV Breinig (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfter at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

SV Breinig away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.80 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfter attack 1.68 + SV Breinig defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.24

SV Breinig attack 1.15 + Alfter defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Alfter scores more
57%
level
20%
SV Breinig scores more
23%

Alfter at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Alfter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Alfter 2–3 SV Breinig

SV Breinig beat Alfter 3-2 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on February 23, 2022.

The match was played at Waldstadion in Alfter.