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SV Babelsberg 03 vs Tasmania Berlin — Friendlies Clubs 2026

SV Babelsberg 03
SV Babelsberg 03
FT
1 – 5
Tasmania Berlin
Tasmania Berlin
6/26/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

SV Babelsberg 0325%
×Draw20%
Tasmania Berlin56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Babelsberg 03
1.54
Tasmania Berlin
2.37

Tasmania Berlin creates 54% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

SV Babelsberg 03
2.09
Tasmania Berlin
3.00

allows per match

SV Babelsberg 03
1.73
Tasmania Berlin
1.00

finishing

SV Babelsberg 03+0.00on par
Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Babelsberg 03 ↓

Tasmania Berlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

SV Babelsberg 03 or draw
44%
SV Babelsberg 03 or Tasmania Berlin
80%
Draw or Tasmania Berlin
75%

Winning margin

SV Babelsberg 03 wins by 2+
11%
Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

SV Babelsberg 03 1+ goals
79%
SV Babelsberg 03 2+ goals
45%
SV Babelsberg 03 3+ goals
20%
Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals
91%
Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals
68%
Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

SV Babelsberg 03 (draw refunded)
31%
Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Babelsberg 03 at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Tasmania Berlin away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Babelsberg 03 attack 2.09 + Tasmania Berlin defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Tasmania Berlin attack 3.00 + SV Babelsberg 03 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

SV Babelsberg 03 scores more
25%
level
20%
Tasmania Berlin scores more
56%

Tasmania Berlin at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tasmania Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SV Babelsberg 03 vs Tasmania Berlin

Tasmania Berlin beat SV Babelsberg 03 5-1 in Friendlies Clubs on June 26, 2022.

The match was played at Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportplatz in Brandenburg an der Have.