Tasmania Berlin vs SV Babelsberg 03

Tasmania Berlin

CANC

12:00

SV Babelsberg 03

1/10/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Tasmania Berlin22%

×Draw19%

SV Babelsberg 0359%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tasmania BerlinExpected goals in this matchSV Babelsberg 03

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

2.46

Tasmania Berlin

1.48

SV Babelsberg 03

2.46

SV Babelsberg 03 creates 66% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

1.64

creates per match

2.56

2.36

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Tasmania Berlin

1.64

SV Babelsberg 03

2.56

allows per match

Tasmania Berlin

2.36

SV Babelsberg 03

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par

SV Babelsberg 03+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tasmania Berlin ↓

SV Babelsberg 03 →

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Tasmania Berlin or draw

41%

Tasmania Berlin or SV Babelsberg 03

81%

Draw or SV Babelsberg 03

78%

Winning margin

Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+

10%

SV Babelsberg 03 wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals

77%

Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals

43%

Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals

19%

SV Babelsberg 03 1+ goals

91%

SV Babelsberg 03 2+ goals

70%

SV Babelsberg 03 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)

28%

SV Babelsberg 03 (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tasmania Berlin at home — creates 1.64, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

SV Babelsberg 03 away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tasmania Berlin attack 1.64 + SV Babelsberg 03 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

SV Babelsberg 03 attack 2.56 + Tasmania Berlin defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Tasmania Berlin scores more

22%

level

19%

SV Babelsberg 03 scores more

59%

SV Babelsberg 03 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "SV Babelsberg 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff