SV Babelsberg 03 2–0 Tasmania Berlin

SV Babelsberg 03

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tasmania Berlin

P. Lela 86'

D. Danko 62' (pen)

12/3/2021

Regionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 20Karl-Liebknecht-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

SV Babelsberg 0382%

×Draw12%

Tasmania Berlin6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV Babelsberg 03Expected goals in this matchTasmania Berlin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.77

0.60

SV Babelsberg 03

2.77

Tasmania Berlin

0.60

SV Babelsberg 03 creates 362% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 3 away

1.88

creates per match

0.00

1.21

allows per match

3.67

creates per match

SV Babelsberg 03

1.88

Tasmania Berlin

0.00

allows per match

SV Babelsberg 03

1.21

Tasmania Berlin

3.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SV Babelsberg 03+0.00on par

Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Babelsberg 03 ↓

Tasmania Berlin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

SV Babelsberg 03 or draw

94%

SV Babelsberg 03 or Tasmania Berlin

88%

Draw or Tasmania Berlin

18%

Winning margin

SV Babelsberg 03 wins by 2+

62%

Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

SV Babelsberg 03 1+ goals

94%

SV Babelsberg 03 2+ goals

76%

SV Babelsberg 03 3+ goals

51%

Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals

45%

Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals

12%

Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

SV Babelsberg 03 (draw refunded)

93%

Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Babelsberg 03 at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Tasmania Berlin away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Babelsberg 03 attack 1.88 + Tasmania Berlin defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.77

Tasmania Berlin attack 0.00 + SV Babelsberg 03 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

SV Babelsberg 03 scores more

82%

level

12%

Tasmania Berlin scores more

6%

SV Babelsberg 03 at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "SV Babelsberg 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

M. Sait← O. Breustedt

62'

L. Biehl← J. Moravec

62'

D. DankoPenalty

70'

70'

77'

85'

86'

90+1'

SV

Tasmania

22

26

12

31

6

7

▼

Bier

21

▼

Storm

5

▼

Tanis

17

Bähr

11

▼

Breustedt

20

Kascha

1

Theißen

30

⚽

5

17

26

18

⚽

Danko

19

▼

Rausch

7

▼

Moravec

22

▼

Sietan

23

Jojkic

6

Wegener

Manager: J. Buder

62'▲L. Biehl←▼J. Moravec

85'▲M. Härtel←▼J. Sietan

90+1'▲F. Pilger←▼M. Rausch

SV Babelsberg 03 substitutes

15Biehl24Härtel20Pilger3Hoffmann12Borchardt28Flügel

Manager: A. Njie

46'▲M. Sait←▼O. Breustedt

70'▲R. Schultze←▼N. Bier

70'▲K. Oudenne←▼A. Tanis

77'▲M. Ceesay←▼M. Storm

Tasmania Berlin substitutes

13Sait14Schultze28Oudenne4Ceesay8Gorrie25Koçak33Ceesay