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SV Babelsberg 03 vs Hertha Zehlendorf — League #85 2026

SV Babelsberg 03
SV Babelsberg 03
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hertha Zehlendorf
Hertha Zehlendorf
P. Zeiger 82'
G. Didoss 76'
T. Schmidt 71' (pen)
L. Queisser 2'
4/4/2026League #85League #85 · Nordost - 28Karl-Liebknecht-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

SV Babelsberg 0369%
×Draw18%
Hertha Zehlendorf13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Babelsberg 03
2.34
Hertha Zehlendorf
0.91

SV Babelsberg 03 creates 157% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 5 away

creates per match

SV Babelsberg 03
1.88
Hertha Zehlendorf
0.60

allows per match

SV Babelsberg 03
1.21
Hertha Zehlendorf
2.80

finishing

SV Babelsberg 03+0.00on par
Hertha Zehlendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Babelsberg 03 ↓

Hertha Zehlendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

SV Babelsberg 03 or draw
87%
SV Babelsberg 03 or Hertha Zehlendorf
82%
Draw or Hertha Zehlendorf
31%

Winning margin

SV Babelsberg 03 wins by 2+
46%
Hertha Zehlendorf wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

SV Babelsberg 03 1+ goals
90%
SV Babelsberg 03 2+ goals
67%
SV Babelsberg 03 3+ goals
41%
Hertha Zehlendorf 1+ goals
60%
Hertha Zehlendorf 2+ goals
23%
Hertha Zehlendorf 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

SV Babelsberg 03 (draw refunded)
84%
Hertha Zehlendorf (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Babelsberg 03 at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Hertha Zehlendorf away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Babelsberg 03 attack 1.88 + Hertha Zehlendorf defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.34

Hertha Zehlendorf attack 0.60 + SV Babelsberg 03 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

SV Babelsberg 03 scores more
69%
level
18%
Hertha Zehlendorf scores more
13%

SV Babelsberg 03 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "SV Babelsberg 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
L. Queisser
71'
T. SchmidtPenalty
76'
G. Didoss
82'
P. Zeiger

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SV Babelsberg 03 vs Hertha Zehlendorf

SV Babelsberg 03 beat Hertha Zehlendorf 4-0 in League #85 on April 4, 2026.

Goals: L. Queisser (2'), T. Schmidt (71' pen), G. Didoss (76'), P. Zeiger (82').

The match was played at Karl-Liebknecht-Stadion in Potsdam.