Hertha Zehlendorf 3–3 SV Babelsberg 03

Hertha Zehlendorf

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

SV Babelsberg 03

I. May 84'

S. Keller 45'

N. Jones 26'

A. Georgiadi 90'

M. Covic 72'

L. Muller 33'

10/5/2025

League #85 · Nordost - 11Stadion Lichterfelde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hertha Zehlendorf34%

×Draw21%

SV Babelsberg 0345%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha ZehlendorfExpected goals in this matchSV Babelsberg 03

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

2.08

Hertha Zehlendorf

1.81

SV Babelsberg 03

2.08

SV Babelsberg 03 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 27 away

2.40

creates per match

1.56

2.60

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Hertha Zehlendorf

2.40

SV Babelsberg 03

1.56

allows per match

Hertha Zehlendorf

2.60

SV Babelsberg 03

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha Zehlendorf+0.00on par

SV Babelsberg 03+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Zehlendorf ↓

SV Babelsberg 03 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Hertha Zehlendorf or draw

55%

Hertha Zehlendorf or SV Babelsberg 03

79%

Draw or SV Babelsberg 03

66%

Winning margin

Hertha Zehlendorf wins by 2+

17%

SV Babelsberg 03 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Hertha Zehlendorf 1+ goals

84%

Hertha Zehlendorf 2+ goals

54%

Hertha Zehlendorf 3+ goals

27%

SV Babelsberg 03 1+ goals

87%

SV Babelsberg 03 2+ goals

61%

SV Babelsberg 03 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Hertha Zehlendorf (draw refunded)

43%

SV Babelsberg 03 (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Zehlendorf at home — creates 2.40, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

SV Babelsberg 03 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Zehlendorf attack 2.40 + SV Babelsberg 03 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.81

SV Babelsberg 03 attack 1.56 + Hertha Zehlendorf defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hertha Zehlendorf scores more

34%

level

21%

SV Babelsberg 03 scores more

45%

SV Babelsberg 03 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SV Babelsberg 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

33'

45'

72'

84'

90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff