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SV Babelsberg 03 vs Eilenburg — League #85 2026

SV Babelsberg 03
SV Babelsberg 03
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Eilenburg
Eilenburg
M. Covic 76'
T. Hasse 41'
N. Poser 58'
3/6/2026League #85League #85 · Nordost - 25Karl-Liebknecht-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

SV Babelsberg 0359%
×Draw21%
Eilenburg20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Babelsberg 03
2.04
Eilenburg
1.10

SV Babelsberg 03 creates 85% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 5 away

creates per match

SV Babelsberg 03
1.88
Eilenburg
1.00

allows per match

SV Babelsberg 03
1.21
Eilenburg
2.20

finishing

SV Babelsberg 03+0.00on par
Eilenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Babelsberg 03 ↓

Eilenburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

SV Babelsberg 03 or draw
80%
SV Babelsberg 03 or Eilenburg
79%
Draw or Eilenburg
41%

Winning margin

SV Babelsberg 03 wins by 2+
36%
Eilenburg wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

SV Babelsberg 03 1+ goals
87%
SV Babelsberg 03 2+ goals
60%
SV Babelsberg 03 3+ goals
33%
Eilenburg 1+ goals
67%
Eilenburg 2+ goals
30%
Eilenburg 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

SV Babelsberg 03 (draw refunded)
75%
Eilenburg (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Babelsberg 03 at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Eilenburg away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Babelsberg 03 attack 1.88 + Eilenburg defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.04

Eilenburg attack 1.00 + SV Babelsberg 03 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

SV Babelsberg 03 scores more
59%
level
21%
Eilenburg scores more
20%

SV Babelsberg 03 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "SV Babelsberg 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
T. Hasse
58'
N. Poser
76'
M. Covic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #85: SV Babelsberg 03 2–1 Eilenburg

SV Babelsberg 03 beat Eilenburg 2-1 in League #85 on March 6, 2026.

Goals: T. Hasse (41'), N. Poser (58'), M. Covic (76').

The match was played at Karl-Liebknecht-Stadion in Potsdam.