Eilenburg 0–2 SV Babelsberg 03: Result & Stats

Eilenburg

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

SV Babelsberg 03

T. Schmidt 57' (pen)

L. Muller 19'

9/16/2025

League #85 · Nordost - 8Ilburg-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Eilenburg28%

×Draw23%

SV Babelsberg 0348%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EilenburgExpected goals in this matchSV Babelsberg 03

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.78

Eilenburg

1.31

SV Babelsberg 03

1.78

SV Babelsberg 03 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 27 away

1.40

creates per match

1.56

2.00

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Eilenburg

1.40

SV Babelsberg 03

1.56

allows per match

Eilenburg

2.00

SV Babelsberg 03

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eilenburg+0.00on par

SV Babelsberg 03+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eilenburg ↓

SV Babelsberg 03 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Eilenburg or draw

52%

Eilenburg or SV Babelsberg 03

77%

Draw or SV Babelsberg 03

72%

Winning margin

Eilenburg wins by 2+

12%

SV Babelsberg 03 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Eilenburg 1+ goals

73%

Eilenburg 2+ goals

38%

Eilenburg 3+ goals

14%

SV Babelsberg 03 1+ goals

83%

SV Babelsberg 03 2+ goals

53%

SV Babelsberg 03 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Eilenburg (draw refunded)

37%

SV Babelsberg 03 (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eilenburg at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

SV Babelsberg 03 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eilenburg attack 1.40 + SV Babelsberg 03 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.31

SV Babelsberg 03 attack 1.56 + Eilenburg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Eilenburg scores more

28%

level

23%

SV Babelsberg 03 scores more

48%

SV Babelsberg 03 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "SV Babelsberg 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

L. Muller

57'

T. SchmidtPenalty

Eilenburg

SV

Manager: S. Prüfer

Manager: R. Ermel

League #85: Eilenburg 0–2 SV Babelsberg 03

SV Babelsberg 03 beat Eilenburg 2-0 in League #85 on September 16, 2025.

Goals: L. Muller (19'), T. Schmidt (57' pen).

The match was played at Ilburg-Stadion in Eilenburg.

Eilenburg vs SV Babelsberg 03 — League #85 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #85: Eilenburg 0–2 SV Babelsberg 03