Suzhou Dongwu vs Shaanxi Changan Athletic — League One 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 57+ matches
Suzhou Dongwu31%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic41%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Shaanxi Changan Athletic creates 21% more chances
Season form · 94 home / 57 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under60
- Over40
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Suzhou Dongwu ↓
Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Suzhou Dongwu at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.10 · 94 matches
Shaanxi Changan Athletic away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.05 · 57 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Suzhou Dongwu attack 1.04 + Shaanxi Changan Athletic defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04
Shaanxi Changan Athletic attack 1.42 + Suzhou Dongwu defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.26
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Shaanxi Changan Athletic at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Shaanxi Changan Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Suzhou Dongwu host Shaanxi Changan Athletic on Saturday, 17 September 2022 at 07:30. The match is part of the League One 2018/2019 season.
League One: Suzhou Dongwu 1–0 Shaanxi Changan Athletic
Suzhou Dongwu beat Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1-0 in League One on September 17, 2022.
Goals: Men Yang (51').
The match was played at Jiangsu Jiangning Football Training Base in Nanjing.