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Suzhou Dongwu vs Shaanxi Changan Athletic — League One 2018

Suzhou Dongwu
Suzhou Dongwu
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
11/8/2020League OneLeague One · Relegation Round - 5Changzhou Institute of Technology

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Suzhou Dongwu31%
×Draw28%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suzhou Dongwu
1.04
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.26

Shaanxi Changan Athletic creates 21% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 57 away

creates per match

Suzhou Dongwu
1.04
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.42

allows per match

Suzhou Dongwu
1.10
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.05

finishing

Suzhou Dongwu+0.00on par
Shaanxi Changan Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suzhou Dongwu ↓

Shaanxi Changan Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Suzhou Dongwu or draw
59%
Suzhou Dongwu or Shaanxi Changan Athletic
72%
Draw or Shaanxi Changan Athletic
69%

Winning margin

Suzhou Dongwu wins by 2+
12%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Suzhou Dongwu 1+ goals
65%
Suzhou Dongwu 2+ goals
28%
Suzhou Dongwu 3+ goals
9%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1+ goals
72%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 2+ goals
36%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Suzhou Dongwu (draw refunded)
42%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suzhou Dongwu at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.10 · 94 matches

Shaanxi Changan Athletic away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.05 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suzhou Dongwu attack 1.04 + Shaanxi Changan Athletic defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Shaanxi Changan Athletic attack 1.42 + Suzhou Dongwu defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Suzhou Dongwu scores more
31%
level
28%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic scores more
41%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shaanxi Changan Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Suzhou Dongwu 1–0 Shaanxi Changan Athletic

Suzhou Dongwu beat Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1-0 in League One on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Changzhou Institute of Technology in Changzhou.