Suzhou Dongwu 1–1 Guizhou Zhicheng: Result & Stats

Suzhou Dongwu

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Guizhou Zhicheng

5/26/2021

League One · Round 7Tazi Lake Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Suzhou Dongwu39%

×Draw28%

Guizhou Zhicheng33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Suzhou DongwuExpected goals in this matchGuizhou Zhicheng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.08

Suzhou Dongwu

1.21

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.08

Suzhou Dongwu creates 12% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 41 away

1.04

creates per match

1.05

1.10

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Suzhou Dongwu

1.04

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.05

allows per match

Suzhou Dongwu

1.10

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Suzhou Dongwu+0.00on par

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suzhou Dongwu ↓

Guizhou Zhicheng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Suzhou Dongwu or draw

67%

Suzhou Dongwu or Guizhou Zhicheng

72%

Draw or Guizhou Zhicheng

61%

Winning margin

Suzhou Dongwu wins by 2+

17%

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Suzhou Dongwu 1+ goals

70%

Suzhou Dongwu 2+ goals

34%

Suzhou Dongwu 3+ goals

12%

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals

66%

Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals

29%

Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Suzhou Dongwu (draw refunded)

54%

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suzhou Dongwu at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.10 · 94 matches

Guizhou Zhicheng away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suzhou Dongwu attack 1.04 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.21

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.05 + Suzhou Dongwu defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Suzhou Dongwu scores more

39%

level

28%

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more

33%

Suzhou Dongwu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Suzhou Dongwu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff