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Guizhou Zhicheng vs Suzhou Dongwu — League One 2018

Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Suzhou Dongwu
Suzhou Dongwu
5/1/2021League OneLeague One · Round 2Wuhan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng41%
×Draw27%
Suzhou Dongwu32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.34
Suzhou Dongwu
1.14

Guizhou Zhicheng creates 18% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 93 away

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.30
Suzhou Dongwu
1.10

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.18
Suzhou Dongwu
1.38

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par
Suzhou Dongwu+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

Suzhou Dongwu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw
68%
Guizhou Zhicheng or Suzhou Dongwu
73%
Draw or Suzhou Dongwu
59%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
19%
Suzhou Dongwu wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
74%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
39%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
15%
Suzhou Dongwu 1+ goals
68%
Suzhou Dongwu 2+ goals
32%
Suzhou Dongwu 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
57%
Suzhou Dongwu (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 40 matches

Suzhou Dongwu away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.30 + Suzhou Dongwu defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Suzhou Dongwu attack 1.10 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
41%
level
27%
Suzhou Dongwu scores more
32%

Guizhou Zhicheng at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Guizhou Zhicheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Guizhou Zhicheng 1–0 Suzhou Dongwu

Guizhou Zhicheng beat Suzhou Dongwu 1-0 in League One on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium in Wuhan.