Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Suzhou Dongwu vs Dalian Zhixing — League One 2026

Suzhou Dongwu
Suzhou Dongwu
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dalian Zhixing
Dalian Zhixing
3/17/2024League OneLeague One · Round 2Kunshan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Suzhou Dongwu35%
×Draw29%
Dalian Zhixing35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suzhou Dongwu
1.08
Dalian Zhixing
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 15 away

creates per match

Suzhou Dongwu
1.03
Dalian Zhixing
1.07

allows per match

Suzhou Dongwu
1.08
Dalian Zhixing
1.13

finishing

Suzhou Dongwu+0.00on par
Dalian Zhixing+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suzhou Dongwu ↓

Dalian Zhixing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Suzhou Dongwu or draw
65%
Suzhou Dongwu or Dalian Zhixing
71%
Draw or Dalian Zhixing
65%

Winning margin

Suzhou Dongwu wins by 2+
14%
Dalian Zhixing wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Suzhou Dongwu 1+ goals
66%
Suzhou Dongwu 2+ goals
29%
Suzhou Dongwu 3+ goals
10%
Dalian Zhixing 1+ goals
66%
Dalian Zhixing 2+ goals
29%
Dalian Zhixing 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Suzhou Dongwu (draw refunded)
50%
Dalian Zhixing (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suzhou Dongwu at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.08 · 95 matches

Dalian Zhixing away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suzhou Dongwu attack 1.03 + Dalian Zhixing defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.08

Dalian Zhixing attack 1.07 + Suzhou Dongwu defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Suzhou Dongwu scores more
35%
level
29%
Dalian Zhixing scores more
35%

Suzhou Dongwu at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Suzhou Dongwu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Suzhou Dongwu vs Dalian Zhixing

Dalian Zhixing beat Suzhou Dongwu 1-0 in League One on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium in Suzhou.