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Dalian Zhixing vs Suzhou Dongwu — League One 2026

Dalian Zhixing
Dalian Zhixing
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Suzhou Dongwu
Suzhou Dongwu
7/13/2024League OneLeague One · Round 17Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dalian Zhixing53%
×Draw25%
Suzhou Dongwu22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalian Zhixing
1.63
Suzhou Dongwu
0.95

Dalian Zhixing creates 72% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 93 away

creates per match

Dalian Zhixing
1.87
Suzhou Dongwu
1.10

allows per match

Dalian Zhixing
0.80
Suzhou Dongwu
1.38

finishing

Dalian Zhixing+0.00on par
Suzhou Dongwu+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Zhixing ↓

Suzhou Dongwu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dalian Zhixing or draw
78%
Dalian Zhixing or Suzhou Dongwu
75%
Draw or Suzhou Dongwu
47%

Winning margin

Dalian Zhixing wins by 2+
28%
Suzhou Dongwu wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dalian Zhixing 1+ goals
80%
Dalian Zhixing 2+ goals
48%
Dalian Zhixing 3+ goals
22%
Suzhou Dongwu 1+ goals
61%
Suzhou Dongwu 2+ goals
25%
Suzhou Dongwu 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dalian Zhixing (draw refunded)
71%
Suzhou Dongwu (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Zhixing at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Suzhou Dongwu away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Zhixing attack 1.87 + Suzhou Dongwu defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.63

Suzhou Dongwu attack 1.10 + Dalian Zhixing defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dalian Zhixing scores more
53%
level
25%
Suzhou Dongwu scores more
22%

Dalian Zhixing at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dalian Zhixing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Dalian Zhixing 2–0 Suzhou Dongwu

Dalian Zhixing beat Suzhou Dongwu 2-0 in League One on July 13, 2024.

The match was played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium in Dalian.