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Suzhou Dongwu vs Beijing Renhe — League One 2018

Suzhou Dongwu
Suzhou Dongwu
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Beijing Renhe
Beijing Renhe
10/4/2020League OneLeague One · Round 7Chengdu Longquanyi Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Suzhou Dongwu43%
×Draw29%
Beijing Renhe28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suzhou Dongwu
1.24
Beijing Renhe
0.94

Suzhou Dongwu creates 32% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 9 away

creates per match

Suzhou Dongwu
1.04
Beijing Renhe
0.78

allows per match

Suzhou Dongwu
1.10
Beijing Renhe
1.44

finishing

Suzhou Dongwu+0.00on par
Beijing Renhe+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suzhou Dongwu ↓

Beijing Renhe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Suzhou Dongwu or draw
72%
Suzhou Dongwu or Beijing Renhe
71%
Draw or Beijing Renhe
57%

Winning margin

Suzhou Dongwu wins by 2+
19%
Beijing Renhe wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Suzhou Dongwu 1+ goals
71%
Suzhou Dongwu 2+ goals
35%
Suzhou Dongwu 3+ goals
13%
Beijing Renhe 1+ goals
61%
Beijing Renhe 2+ goals
24%
Beijing Renhe 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Suzhou Dongwu (draw refunded)
61%
Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suzhou Dongwu at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.10 · 94 matches

Beijing Renhe away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suzhou Dongwu attack 1.04 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.24

Beijing Renhe attack 0.78 + Suzhou Dongwu defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Suzhou Dongwu scores more
43%
level
29%
Beijing Renhe scores more
28%

Suzhou Dongwu at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Suzhou Dongwu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Suzhou Dongwu vs Beijing Renhe

Beijing Renhe beat Suzhou Dongwu 2-0 in League One on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Chengdu Longquanyi Football Stadium in Chengdu.