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Beijing Renhe vs Suzhou Dongwu — League One 2018

Beijing Renhe
Beijing Renhe
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Suzhou Dongwu
Suzhou Dongwu
9/16/2020League OneLeague One · Round 2Shuangliu Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Beijing Renhe42%
×Draw24%
Suzhou Dongwu34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Renhe
1.63
Suzhou Dongwu
1.43

Beijing Renhe creates 14% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 93 away

creates per match

Beijing Renhe
1.88
Suzhou Dongwu
1.10

allows per match

Beijing Renhe
1.75
Suzhou Dongwu
1.38

finishing

Beijing Renhe+0.00on par
Suzhou Dongwu+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Renhe ↓

Suzhou Dongwu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Beijing Renhe or draw
66%
Beijing Renhe or Suzhou Dongwu
76%
Draw or Suzhou Dongwu
58%

Winning margin

Beijing Renhe wins by 2+
22%
Suzhou Dongwu wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Beijing Renhe 1+ goals
80%
Beijing Renhe 2+ goals
48%
Beijing Renhe 3+ goals
22%
Suzhou Dongwu 1+ goals
76%
Suzhou Dongwu 2+ goals
42%
Suzhou Dongwu 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)
56%
Suzhou Dongwu (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Renhe at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Suzhou Dongwu away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Renhe attack 1.88 + Suzhou Dongwu defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.63

Suzhou Dongwu attack 1.10 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Beijing Renhe scores more
42%
level
24%
Suzhou Dongwu scores more
34%

Beijing Renhe at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Beijing Renhe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Beijing Renhe 1–0 Suzhou Dongwu

Beijing Renhe beat Suzhou Dongwu 1-0 in League One on September 16, 2020.

The match was played at Shuangliu Sports Centre in Chengdu.