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Suzhou Dongwu vs Beijing Baxy — League One 2018

Suzhou Dongwu
Suzhou Dongwu
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
12/4/2022League OneLeague One · Round 33Dalian Sports Centre Stadium Field No.3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Suzhou Dongwu42%
×Draw28%
Beijing Baxy31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suzhou Dongwu
1.30
Beijing Baxy
1.08

Suzhou Dongwu creates 20% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 71 away

creates per match

Suzhou Dongwu
1.04
Beijing Baxy
1.07

allows per match

Suzhou Dongwu
1.10
Beijing Baxy
1.56

finishing

Suzhou Dongwu+0.00on par
Beijing Baxy+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suzhou Dongwu ↓

Beijing Baxy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Suzhou Dongwu or draw
69%
Suzhou Dongwu or Beijing Baxy
72%
Draw or Beijing Baxy
58%

Winning margin

Suzhou Dongwu wins by 2+
19%
Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Suzhou Dongwu 1+ goals
73%
Suzhou Dongwu 2+ goals
37%
Suzhou Dongwu 3+ goals
14%
Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
66%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
29%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Suzhou Dongwu (draw refunded)
57%
Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suzhou Dongwu at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.10 · 94 matches

Beijing Baxy away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.56 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suzhou Dongwu attack 1.04 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.30

Beijing Baxy attack 1.07 + Suzhou Dongwu defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Suzhou Dongwu scores more
42%
level
28%
Beijing Baxy scores more
31%

Suzhou Dongwu at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Suzhou Dongwu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Suzhou Dongwu 0–0 Beijing Baxy

Suzhou Dongwu and Beijing Baxy drew 0-0 in League One on December 4, 2022.

The match was played at Dalian Sports Centre Stadium Field No.3 in Dalian.