Beijing Baxy 2–3 Suzhou Dongwu: Result & Stats

Beijing Baxy

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Suzhou Dongwu

12/18/2021

League One · 2nd Phase - 23Tazi Lake Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Beijing Baxy43%

×Draw27%

Suzhou Dongwu31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beijing BaxyExpected goals in this matchSuzhou Dongwu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.13

Beijing Baxy

1.38

Suzhou Dongwu

1.13

Beijing Baxy creates 22% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 93 away

1.39

creates per match

1.10

1.15

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Beijing Baxy

1.39

Suzhou Dongwu

1.10

allows per match

Beijing Baxy

1.15

Suzhou Dongwu

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beijing Baxy+0.00on par

Suzhou Dongwu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Baxy ↓

Suzhou Dongwu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Beijing Baxy or draw

69%

Beijing Baxy or Suzhou Dongwu

73%

Draw or Suzhou Dongwu

57%

Winning margin

Beijing Baxy wins by 2+

20%

Suzhou Dongwu wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Beijing Baxy 1+ goals

75%

Beijing Baxy 2+ goals

40%

Beijing Baxy 3+ goals

16%

Suzhou Dongwu 1+ goals

68%

Suzhou Dongwu 2+ goals

31%

Suzhou Dongwu 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)

58%

Suzhou Dongwu (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Baxy at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.15 · 72 matches

Suzhou Dongwu away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Baxy attack 1.39 + Suzhou Dongwu defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Suzhou Dongwu attack 1.10 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Beijing Baxy scores more

43%

level

27%

Suzhou Dongwu scores more

31%

Beijing Baxy at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Beijing Baxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff