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Suwon City FC vs Seongnam FC — K League 1 2026

Suwon City FC
Suwon City FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Seongnam FC
Seongnam FC
10/12/2022K League 1K League 1 · Relegation Round - 3Suwon Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Suwon City FC41%
×Draw26%
Seongnam FC34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suwon City FC
1.45
Seongnam FC
1.29

Suwon City FC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 53 away

creates per match

Suwon City FC
1.57
Seongnam FC
0.92

allows per match

Suwon City FC
1.66
Seongnam FC
1.32

finishing

Suwon City FC+0.00on par
Seongnam FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suwon City FC ↓

Seongnam FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Suwon City FC or draw
66%
Suwon City FC or Seongnam FC
74%
Draw or Seongnam FC
59%

Winning margin

Suwon City FC wins by 2+
20%
Seongnam FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Suwon City FC 1+ goals
77%
Suwon City FC 2+ goals
42%
Suwon City FC 3+ goals
18%
Seongnam FC 1+ goals
72%
Seongnam FC 2+ goals
37%
Seongnam FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Suwon City FC (draw refunded)
55%
Seongnam FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suwon City FC at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.66 · 96 matches

Seongnam FC away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.32 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suwon City FC attack 1.57 + Seongnam FC defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.45

Seongnam FC attack 0.92 + Suwon City FC defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Suwon City FC scores more
41%
level
26%
Seongnam FC scores more
34%

Suwon City FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Suwon City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 1: Suwon City FC 2–1 Seongnam FC

Suwon City FC beat Seongnam FC 2-1 in K League 1 on October 12, 2022.

The match was played at Suwon Sports Complex in Suwon.