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Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC — K League 1 2026

Seongnam FC
Seongnam FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Suwon City FC
Suwon City FC
8/28/2022K League 1K League 1 · Round 23Tancheon Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Seongnam FC36%
×Draw26%
Suwon City FC38%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seongnam FC
1.29
Suwon City FC
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 97 away

creates per match

Seongnam FC
0.96
Suwon City FC
1.13

allows per match

Seongnam FC
1.58
Suwon City FC
1.63

finishing

Seongnam FC+0.00on par
Suwon City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seongnam FC ↓

Suwon City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Seongnam FC or draw
62%
Seongnam FC or Suwon City FC
74%
Draw or Suwon City FC
64%

Winning margin

Seongnam FC wins by 2+
16%
Suwon City FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Seongnam FC 1+ goals
72%
Seongnam FC 2+ goals
37%
Seongnam FC 3+ goals
14%
Suwon City FC 1+ goals
74%
Suwon City FC 2+ goals
39%
Suwon City FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Seongnam FC (draw refunded)
48%
Suwon City FC (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seongnam FC at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.58 · 52 matches

Suwon City FC away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.63 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seongnam FC attack 0.96 + Suwon City FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.29

Suwon City FC attack 1.13 + Seongnam FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Seongnam FC scores more
36%
level
26%
Suwon City FC scores more
38%

Suwon City FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Suwon City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 1: Seongnam FC 2–1 Suwon City FC

Seongnam FC beat Suwon City FC 2-1 in K League 1 on August 28, 2022.

The match was played at Tancheon Sports Complex in Seongnam.