Suwon City FC 2–4 Gwangju FC: Result & Stats

Suwon City FC

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Gwangju FC

Park In-Hyeok 41' (OG)

P. Sabbag 24' (pen)

Reis 90'

Cho Sung-Gwon 83'

Byeon Jun-Soo 36'

Ahn Jun-Su 9' (OG)

9/14/2025

K League 1 · Round 29Suwon Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Suwon City FC42%

×Draw25%

Gwangju FC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Suwon City FCExpected goals in this matchGwangju FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.32

Suwon City FC

1.53

Gwangju FC

1.32

Suwon City FC creates 16% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 96 away

1.57

creates per match

0.98

1.66

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Suwon City FC

1.57

Gwangju FC

0.98

allows per match

Suwon City FC

1.66

Gwangju FC

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Suwon City FC+0.00on par

Gwangju FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suwon City FC ↓

Gwangju FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Suwon City FC or draw

67%

Suwon City FC or Gwangju FC

75%

Draw or Gwangju FC

58%

Winning margin

Suwon City FC wins by 2+

21%

Gwangju FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Suwon City FC 1+ goals

78%

Suwon City FC 2+ goals

45%

Suwon City FC 3+ goals

20%

Gwangju FC 1+ goals

73%

Gwangju FC 2+ goals

38%

Gwangju FC 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Suwon City FC (draw refunded)

56%

Gwangju FC (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suwon City FC at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.66 · 96 matches

Gwangju FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.49 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suwon City FC attack 1.57 + Gwangju FC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.53

Gwangju FC attack 0.98 + Suwon City FC defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Suwon City FC scores more

42%

level

25%

Gwangju FC scores more

33%

Suwon City FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Suwon City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Byeon Jun-Soo

Gwangju FC · D

8.7

Match Events

9'

Ahn Jun-SuOwn goal

21'

Luan DiasPenalty confirmed

24'

P. SabbagPenalty

30'

Jae-won Lee

34'

Andrigo← Jung Seung-Bae

36'

Byeon Jun-Soo↳ Oh Hoo-Sung

41'

Park In-HyeokOwn goal

46'

Shin Chang-Moo← Moon Min-seo

61'

Yu Je-Ho← K. Lee

61'

J. Jeong← Park In-Hyeok

64'

Seo Jae-Min← Ahn Hyun-Beom

79'

Kim Gyeong-Min← S. Lee

80'

Roh Kyung-Ho← Han Chan-Hee

81'

Cho Sung-Gwon← Ha Seung-Un

83'

Cho Sung-Gwon↳ Shin Chang-Moo

89'

Jo Seong-KwonGoal confirmed

90+14'

Chang-mu Shin

90+9'

Ahn Young-Kyu← Sim Sang-Min

90'

Reis↳ Shin Chang-Moo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SuwonGwangju

Overview

54%Possession46%

22Total Shots13

5Corners10

7Fouls8

Shots

22Total Shots13

5On Target8

5Off Target2

12Blocked3

11Inside Box11

11Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

396Total Passes329

330Accurate Passes271

83%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3