Gwangju FC 0–0 Suwon City FC: Result & Stats

Gwangju FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Suwon City FC

2/15/2025

K League 1 · Round 1Gwangju Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Gwangju FC42%

×Draw26%

Suwon City FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gwangju FCExpected goals in this matchSuwon City FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.17

Gwangju FC

1.40

Suwon City FC

1.17

Gwangju FC creates 20% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 97 away

1.17

creates per match

1.13

1.20

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Gwangju FC

1.17

Suwon City FC

1.13

allows per match

Gwangju FC

1.20

Suwon City FC

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gwangju FC+0.00on par

Suwon City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwangju FC ↓

Suwon City FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Gwangju FC or draw

69%

Gwangju FC or Suwon City FC

74%

Draw or Suwon City FC

58%

Winning margin

Gwangju FC wins by 2+

20%

Suwon City FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Gwangju FC 1+ goals

75%

Gwangju FC 2+ goals

41%

Gwangju FC 3+ goals

17%

Suwon City FC 1+ goals

69%

Suwon City FC 2+ goals

33%

Suwon City FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Gwangju FC (draw refunded)

57%

Suwon City FC (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwangju FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 98 matches

Suwon City FC away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.63 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwangju FC attack 1.17 + Suwon City FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

Suwon City FC attack 1.13 + Gwangju FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gwangju FC scores more

42%

level

26%

Suwon City FC scores more

31%

Gwangju FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gwangju FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Ahn Jun-Su

Suwon City FC · G

7.7

Match Events

46'

Yoon Bit-Garam← S. Choi

58'

Park Tae-Jun← K. Lee

58'

Oh Hoo-Sung← Park Jeong-In

58'

J. Asani← Kim Han-Gil

65'

P. Sabbag← Ji Dong-Won

65'

M. Ofkir← J. Kim

70'

H. S. Kang← Moon Min-seo

79'

J. Hwang← Park In-Hyeok

82'

L. Abanda← Seo Jae-Min

90+2'

Roh Kyung-ho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GwangjuSuwon

Overview

51%Possession49%

17Total Shots5

3Corners2

10Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots5

4On Target2

8Off Target2

5Blocked1

11Inside Box2

6Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

489Total Passes469

426Accurate Passes404

87%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1