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Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC — K League 2 2026

Suwon City FC
Suwon City FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Daegu FC
Daegu FC
4/11/2026K League 2K League 2 · Round 7Suwon Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Suwon City FC30%
×Draw23%
Daegu FC47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suwon City FC
1.40
Daegu FC
1.81

Daegu FC creates 29% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 7 away

creates per match

Suwon City FC
1.37
Daegu FC
2.29

allows per match

Suwon City FC
1.33
Daegu FC
1.43

finishing

Suwon City FC+0.00on par
Daegu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suwon City FC ↓

Daegu FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Suwon City FC or draw
53%
Suwon City FC or Daegu FC
77%
Draw or Daegu FC
70%

Winning margin

Suwon City FC wins by 2+
13%
Daegu FC wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Suwon City FC 1+ goals
75%
Suwon City FC 2+ goals
41%
Suwon City FC 3+ goals
17%
Daegu FC 1+ goals
84%
Daegu FC 2+ goals
54%
Daegu FC 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Suwon City FC (draw refunded)
39%
Daegu FC (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suwon City FC at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.33 · 57 matches

Daegu FC away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suwon City FC attack 1.37 + Daegu FC defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Daegu FC attack 2.29 + Suwon City FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Suwon City FC scores more
30%
level
23%
Daegu FC scores more
47%

Daegu FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Daegu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 2: Suwon City FC 2–2 Daegu FC

Suwon City FC and Daegu FC drew 2-2 in K League 2 on April 11, 2026.

The match was played at Suwon Sports Complex in Suwon.