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Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC — K League 1 2026

Daegu FC
Daegu FC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Suwon City FC
Suwon City FC
8/30/2025K League 1K League 1 · Round 28DGB Daegu Bank Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Daegu FC43%
×Draw26%
Suwon City FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Daegu FC
1.48
Suwon City FC
1.21

Daegu FC creates 22% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 97 away

creates per match

Daegu FC
1.33
Suwon City FC
1.13

allows per match

Daegu FC
1.29
Suwon City FC
1.63

finishing

Daegu FC+0.00on par
Suwon City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daegu FC ↓

Suwon City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Daegu FC or draw
69%
Daegu FC or Suwon City FC
74%
Draw or Suwon City FC
57%

Winning margin

Daegu FC wins by 2+
21%
Suwon City FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Daegu FC 1+ goals
77%
Daegu FC 2+ goals
43%
Daegu FC 3+ goals
19%
Suwon City FC 1+ goals
70%
Suwon City FC 2+ goals
34%
Suwon City FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Daegu FC (draw refunded)
58%
Suwon City FC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daegu FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 145 matches

Suwon City FC away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.63 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daegu FC attack 1.33 + Suwon City FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Suwon City FC attack 1.13 + Daegu FC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Daegu FC scores more
43%
level
26%
Suwon City FC scores more
31%

Daegu FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Daegu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 1: Daegu FC 3–1 Suwon City FC

Daegu FC beat Suwon City FC 3-1 in K League 1 on August 30, 2025.

The match was played at DGB Daegu Bank Park in Daegu.