Suwon Bluewings 1–1 Shanghai Shenhua

Suwon Bluewings

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Shanghai Shenhua

Lee Ki-Je 47'

G. Moreno 71' (pen)

3/7/2018

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 3Suwon World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Suwon Bluewings52%

×Draw24%

Shanghai Shenhua24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Suwon BluewingsExpected goals in this matchShanghai Shenhua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.08

Suwon Bluewings

1.71

Shanghai Shenhua

1.08

Suwon Bluewings creates 58% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 15 away

1.75

creates per match

0.67

1.50

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Suwon Bluewings

1.75

Shanghai Shenhua

0.67

allows per match

Suwon Bluewings

1.50

Shanghai Shenhua

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Suwon Bluewings+0.00on par

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suwon Bluewings ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Suwon Bluewings or draw

76%

Suwon Bluewings or Shanghai Shenhua

76%

Draw or Shanghai Shenhua

48%

Winning margin

Suwon Bluewings wins by 2+

28%

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Suwon Bluewings 1+ goals

82%

Suwon Bluewings 2+ goals

51%

Suwon Bluewings 3+ goals

24%

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

66%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

29%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Suwon Bluewings (draw refunded)

68%

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suwon Bluewings at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suwon Bluewings attack 1.75 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.67 + Suwon Bluewings defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Suwon Bluewings scores more

52%

level

24%

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

24%

Suwon Bluewings at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Suwon Bluewings will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

Lee Jong-Sung

Suwon Bluewings

7.2

Match Events

15'

Kai Sun

46'

G. Moreno← Gao Di

47'

Lee Ki-Je

68'

Li Peng← Sun Kai

71'

Waguininho← Lim Sang-Hyub

71'

G. MorenoPenalty

83'

Kim Gun-Hee← Cristovam

84'

Shuai Li

84'

Zhang Lu← Li Xiaoming

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SuwonShanghai

Overview

68%Possession32%

16Total Shots5

4Corners5

19Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots5

8On Target2

6Off Target3

2Blocked0

9Inside Box3

7Outside Box2

Passing

68%Possession32%

598Total Passes275

508Accurate Passes178

85%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

19Fouls15

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0