Shanghai Shenhua 0–2 Suwon Bluewings

Shanghai Shenhua

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Suwon Bluewings

3/13/2018

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 4Shanghai Hongkou Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua28%

×Draw24%

Suwon Bluewings48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shanghai ShenhuaExpected goals in this matchSuwon Bluewings

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.69

Shanghai Shenhua

1.25

Suwon Bluewings

1.69

Suwon Bluewings creates 35% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

1.60

creates per match

1.70

1.67

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua

1.60

Suwon Bluewings

1.70

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua

1.67

Suwon Bluewings

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Suwon Bluewings+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Suwon Bluewings →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw

52%

Shanghai Shenhua or Suwon Bluewings

76%

Draw or Suwon Bluewings

72%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

12%

Suwon Bluewings wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

71%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

36%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

13%

Suwon Bluewings 1+ goals

82%

Suwon Bluewings 2+ goals

50%

Suwon Bluewings 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

37%

Suwon Bluewings (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Suwon Bluewings away — creates 1.70, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.60 + Suwon Bluewings defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.25

Suwon Bluewings attack 1.70 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

28%

level

24%

Suwon Bluewings scores more

48%

Suwon Bluewings at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Suwon Bluewings will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff