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Suwon Bluewings vs Seoul E-Land FC — FA Cup 2019

Suwon Bluewings
Suwon Bluewings
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Seoul E-Land FC
Seoul E-Land FC
3/19/2025FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundSuwon World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Suwon Bluewings68%
×Draw23%
Seoul E-Land FC9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suwon Bluewings
1.67
Seoul E-Land FC
0.44

Suwon Bluewings creates 280% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Suwon Bluewings
2.14
Seoul E-Land FC
0.60

allows per match

Suwon Bluewings
0.29
Seoul E-Land FC
1.20

finishing

Suwon Bluewings+0.00on par
Seoul E-Land FC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suwon Bluewings ↓

Seoul E-Land FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Suwon Bluewings or draw
91%
Suwon Bluewings or Seoul E-Land FC
77%
Draw or Seoul E-Land FC
32%

Winning margin

Suwon Bluewings wins by 2+
39%
Seoul E-Land FC wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Suwon Bluewings 1+ goals
81%
Suwon Bluewings 2+ goals
50%
Suwon Bluewings 3+ goals
23%
Seoul E-Land FC 1+ goals
36%
Seoul E-Land FC 2+ goals
7%
Seoul E-Land FC 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Suwon Bluewings (draw refunded)
88%
Seoul E-Land FC (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suwon Bluewings at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

Seoul E-Land FC away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suwon Bluewings attack 2.14 + Seoul E-Land FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.67

Seoul E-Land FC attack 0.60 + Suwon Bluewings defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Suwon Bluewings scores more
68%
level
23%
Seoul E-Land FC scores more
9%

Suwon Bluewings at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Suwon Bluewings will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Suwon Bluewings vs Seoul E-Land FC

Suwon Bluewings beat Seoul E-Land FC 2-1 in FA Cup on March 19, 2025.

The match was played at Suwon World Cup Stadium in Suwon.