Suwon Bluewings 2–1 Sangju Sangmu FC

Suwon Bluewings

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sangju Sangmu FC

5/17/2022

K League 1 · Round 13Suwon World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Suwon Bluewings36%

×Draw27%

Sangju Sangmu FC37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Suwon BluewingsExpected goals in this matchSangju Sangmu FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.27

Suwon Bluewings

1.24

Sangju Sangmu FC

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 117 away

1.10

creates per match

1.23

1.30

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Suwon Bluewings

1.10

Sangju Sangmu FC

1.23

allows per match

Suwon Bluewings

1.30

Sangju Sangmu FC

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Suwon Bluewings+0.00on par

Sangju Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suwon Bluewings ↓

Sangju Sangmu FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Suwon Bluewings or draw

63%

Suwon Bluewings or Sangju Sangmu FC

73%

Draw or Sangju Sangmu FC

64%

Winning margin

Suwon Bluewings wins by 2+

15%

Sangju Sangmu FC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Suwon Bluewings 1+ goals

71%

Suwon Bluewings 2+ goals

35%

Suwon Bluewings 3+ goals

13%

Sangju Sangmu FC 1+ goals

72%

Sangju Sangmu FC 2+ goals

36%

Sangju Sangmu FC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Suwon Bluewings (draw refunded)

49%

Sangju Sangmu FC (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suwon Bluewings at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.30 · 110 matches

Sangju Sangmu FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.38 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suwon Bluewings attack 1.10 + Sangju Sangmu FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.24

Sangju Sangmu FC attack 1.23 + Suwon Bluewings defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Suwon Bluewings scores more

36%

level

27%

Sangju Sangmu FC scores more

37%

Sangju Sangmu FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sangju Sangmu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Suwon Bluewings vs Sangju Sangmu FC

Suwon Bluewings beat Sangju Sangmu FC 2-1 in K League 1 on May 17, 2022.

The match was played at Suwon World Cup Stadium in Suwon.

Suwon Bluewings vs Sangju Sangmu FC — K League 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Suwon Bluewings vs Sangju Sangmu FC