Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1–3 Suwon Bluewings

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Suwon Bluewings

10/22/2022

K League 1 · Relegation Round - 5Gimcheon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC40%

×Draw27%

Suwon Bluewings33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimcheon Sangmu FCExpected goals in this matchSuwon Bluewings

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.17

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.33

Suwon Bluewings

1.17

Gimcheon Sangmu FC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 110 away

1.32

creates per match

1.15

1.19

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.32

Suwon Bluewings

1.15

allows per match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.19

Suwon Bluewings

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Suwon Bluewings+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimcheon Sangmu FC ↓

Suwon Bluewings →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Gimcheon Sangmu FC or draw

67%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Suwon Bluewings

73%

Draw or Suwon Bluewings

60%

Winning margin

Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+

18%

Suwon Bluewings wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals

74%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals

38%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals

15%

Suwon Bluewings 1+ goals

69%

Suwon Bluewings 2+ goals

33%

Suwon Bluewings 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)

55%

Suwon Bluewings (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.19 · 119 matches

Suwon Bluewings away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.35 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.32 + Suwon Bluewings defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Suwon Bluewings attack 1.15 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more

40%

level

27%

Suwon Bluewings scores more

33%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gimcheon Sangmu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon Bluewings

Suwon Bluewings beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-1 in K League 1 on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Gimcheon Stadium in Gimcheon.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon Bluewings — K League 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon Bluewings