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Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul — K League 1 2026

Suwon Bluewings
Suwon Bluewings
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Seoul
FC Seoul
9/2/2023K League 1K League 1 · Round 29Suwon World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Suwon Bluewings35%
×Draw27%
FC Seoul38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suwon Bluewings
1.20
FC Seoul
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 156 away

creates per match

Suwon Bluewings
1.10
FC Seoul
1.20

allows per match

Suwon Bluewings
1.30
FC Seoul
1.29

finishing

Suwon Bluewings+0.00on par
FC Seoul+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suwon Bluewings ↓

FC Seoul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Suwon Bluewings or draw
62%
Suwon Bluewings or FC Seoul
73%
Draw or FC Seoul
65%

Winning margin

Suwon Bluewings wins by 2+
15%
FC Seoul wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Suwon Bluewings 1+ goals
70%
Suwon Bluewings 2+ goals
34%
Suwon Bluewings 3+ goals
12%
FC Seoul 1+ goals
71%
FC Seoul 2+ goals
36%
FC Seoul 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Suwon Bluewings (draw refunded)
48%
FC Seoul (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suwon Bluewings at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.30 · 110 matches

FC Seoul away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.29 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suwon Bluewings attack 1.10 + FC Seoul defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

FC Seoul attack 1.20 + Suwon Bluewings defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Suwon Bluewings scores more
35%
level
27%
FC Seoul scores more
38%

FC Seoul at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Seoul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul

FC Seoul beat Suwon Bluewings 1-0 in K League 1 on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Suwon World Cup Stadium in Suwon.