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FC Seoul vs Suwon Bluewings — K League 1 2026

FC Seoul
FC Seoul
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Suwon Bluewings
Suwon Bluewings
11/25/2023K League 1K League 1 · Relegation Round - 4Seoul World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

FC Seoul41%
×Draw27%
Suwon Bluewings32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Seoul
1.37
Suwon Bluewings
1.18

FC Seoul creates 16% more chances

Season form · 154 home / 110 away

creates per match

FC Seoul
1.39
Suwon Bluewings
1.15

allows per match

FC Seoul
1.21
Suwon Bluewings
1.35

finishing

FC Seoul+0.00on par
Suwon Bluewings+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Seoul ↓

Suwon Bluewings →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Seoul or draw
68%
FC Seoul or Suwon Bluewings
73%
Draw or Suwon Bluewings
59%

Winning margin

FC Seoul wins by 2+
19%
Suwon Bluewings wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Seoul 1+ goals
75%
FC Seoul 2+ goals
40%
FC Seoul 3+ goals
16%
Suwon Bluewings 1+ goals
69%
Suwon Bluewings 2+ goals
33%
Suwon Bluewings 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Seoul (draw refunded)
56%
Suwon Bluewings (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Seoul at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.21 · 154 matches

Suwon Bluewings away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.35 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Seoul attack 1.39 + Suwon Bluewings defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.37

Suwon Bluewings attack 1.15 + FC Seoul defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Seoul scores more
41%
level
27%
Suwon Bluewings scores more
32%

FC Seoul at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Seoul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 1: FC Seoul 0–1 Suwon Bluewings

Suwon Bluewings beat FC Seoul 1-0 in K League 1 on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Seoul World Cup Stadium in Seoul.