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Suvorovo vs Septemvri Tervel — Third League - Northeast 2018

Suvorovo
Suvorovo
FT
4 – 1
Septemvri Tervel
Septemvri Tervel
8/26/2018Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 2Gradski stadion (Suvorovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Suvorovo64%
×Draw19%
Septemvri Tervel17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suvorovo
2.34
Septemvri Tervel
1.13

Suvorovo creates 107% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 104 away

creates per match

Suvorovo
3.80
Septemvri Tervel
1.60

allows per match

Suvorovo
0.65
Septemvri Tervel
0.88

finishing

Suvorovo+0.00on par
Septemvri Tervel+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suvorovo ↓

Septemvri Tervel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Suvorovo or draw
83%
Suvorovo or Septemvri Tervel
81%
Draw or Septemvri Tervel
36%

Winning margin

Suvorovo wins by 2+
42%
Septemvri Tervel wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Suvorovo 1+ goals
90%
Suvorovo 2+ goals
67%
Suvorovo 3+ goals
41%
Septemvri Tervel 1+ goals
68%
Septemvri Tervel 2+ goals
31%
Septemvri Tervel 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Suvorovo (draw refunded)
79%
Septemvri Tervel (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suvorovo at home — creates 3.80, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Septemvri Tervel away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.88 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suvorovo attack 3.80 + Septemvri Tervel defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 2.34

Septemvri Tervel attack 1.60 + Suvorovo defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Suvorovo scores more
64%
level
19%
Septemvri Tervel scores more
17%

Suvorovo at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Suvorovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Suvorovo 4–1 Septemvri Tervel

Suvorovo beat Septemvri Tervel 4-1 in Third League - Northeast on August 26, 2018.

The match was played at Gradski stadion (Suvorovo).