Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Septemvri Tervel vs Suvorovo — Third League - Northeast 2018

Septemvri Tervel
Septemvri Tervel
FT
2 – 0
Suvorovo
Suvorovo
12/7/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 10Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Septemvri Tervel51%
×Draw23%
Suvorovo26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Tervel
1.85
Suvorovo
1.25

Septemvri Tervel creates 48% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 20 away

creates per match

Septemvri Tervel
2.80
Suvorovo
1.85

allows per match

Septemvri Tervel
0.64
Suvorovo
0.90

finishing

Septemvri Tervel+0.00on par
Suvorovo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Tervel ↓

Suvorovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Septemvri Tervel or draw
74%
Septemvri Tervel or Suvorovo
77%
Draw or Suvorovo
49%

Winning margin

Septemvri Tervel wins by 2+
29%
Suvorovo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Septemvri Tervel 1+ goals
84%
Septemvri Tervel 2+ goals
55%
Septemvri Tervel 3+ goals
28%
Suvorovo 1+ goals
71%
Suvorovo 2+ goals
36%
Suvorovo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Tervel (draw refunded)
66%
Suvorovo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Tervel at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.64 · 104 matches

Suvorovo away — creates 1.85, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Tervel attack 2.80 + Suvorovo defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.85

Suvorovo attack 1.85 + Septemvri Tervel defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Septemvri Tervel scores more
51%
level
23%
Suvorovo scores more
26%

Septemvri Tervel at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Septemvri Tervel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Septemvri Tervel 2 – 0 Suvorovo

Septemvri Tervel beat Suvorovo 2-0 in Third League - Northeast on December 7, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Tervel.