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Suvorovo vs Kaliakra 1923 — Third League - Northeast 2018

Suvorovo
Suvorovo
FT
4 – 0
Kaliakra 1923
Kaliakra 1923
3/24/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 20Gradski stadion (Suvorovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Suvorovo82%
×Draw12%
Kaliakra 19236%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suvorovo
2.86
Kaliakra 1923
0.66

Suvorovo creates 333% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 12 away

creates per match

Suvorovo
3.80
Kaliakra 1923
0.67

allows per match

Suvorovo
0.65
Kaliakra 1923
1.92

finishing

Suvorovo+0.00on par
Kaliakra 1923+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suvorovo ↓

Kaliakra 1923 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Suvorovo or draw
94%
Suvorovo or Kaliakra 1923
88%
Draw or Kaliakra 1923
18%

Winning margin

Suvorovo wins by 2+
62%
Kaliakra 1923 wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Suvorovo 1+ goals
94%
Suvorovo 2+ goals
77%
Suvorovo 3+ goals
53%
Kaliakra 1923 1+ goals
48%
Kaliakra 1923 2+ goals
14%
Kaliakra 1923 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Suvorovo (draw refunded)
93%
Kaliakra 1923 (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suvorovo at home — creates 3.80, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Kaliakra 1923 away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suvorovo attack 3.80 + Kaliakra 1923 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.86

Kaliakra 1923 attack 0.67 + Suvorovo defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Suvorovo scores more
82%
level
12%
Kaliakra 1923 scores more
6%

Suvorovo at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Suvorovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Suvorovo vs Kaliakra 1923

Suvorovo beat Kaliakra 1923 4-0 in Third League - Northeast on March 24, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion (Suvorovo).