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Kaliakra 1923 vs Suvorovo — Third League - Northeast 2018

Kaliakra 1923
Kaliakra 1923
CANC
00:00
Suvorovo
Suvorovo
10/5/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 8Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kaliakra 192330%
×Draw23%
Suvorovo47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaliakra 1923
1.38
Suvorovo
1.77

Suvorovo creates 28% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

creates per match

Kaliakra 1923
1.85
Suvorovo
1.85

allows per match

Kaliakra 1923
1.69
Suvorovo
0.90

finishing

Kaliakra 1923+0.00on par
Suvorovo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaliakra 1923 ↓

Suvorovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kaliakra 1923 or draw
53%
Kaliakra 1923 or Suvorovo
77%
Draw or Suvorovo
70%

Winning margin

Kaliakra 1923 wins by 2+
13%
Suvorovo wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Kaliakra 1923 1+ goals
75%
Kaliakra 1923 2+ goals
40%
Kaliakra 1923 3+ goals
16%
Suvorovo 1+ goals
83%
Suvorovo 2+ goals
53%
Suvorovo 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Kaliakra 1923 (draw refunded)
39%
Suvorovo (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaliakra 1923 at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Suvorovo away — creates 1.85, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaliakra 1923 attack 1.85 + Suvorovo defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.38

Suvorovo attack 1.85 + Kaliakra 1923 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kaliakra 1923 scores more
30%
level
23%
Suvorovo scores more
47%

Suvorovo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Suvorovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kaliakra 1923 host Suvorovo

October 5, 2019: Kaliakra 1923 take on Suvorovo in Third League - Northeast. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kaliakra 1923 host Suvorovo at Gradski stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.