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Suvorovo vs Benkovski Byala — Third League - Northeast 2018

Suvorovo
Suvorovo
FT
8 – 0
Benkovski Byala
Benkovski Byala
9/15/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 5Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Suvorovo92%
×Draw6%
Benkovski Byala2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suvorovo
3.70
Benkovski Byala
0.47

Suvorovo creates 687% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

Suvorovo
3.80
Benkovski Byala
0.30

allows per match

Suvorovo
0.65
Benkovski Byala
3.60

finishing

Suvorovo+0.00on par
Benkovski Byala+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suvorovo ↓

Benkovski Byala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–013%
4–16%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (14%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
56%44%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Suvorovo or draw
98%
Suvorovo or Benkovski Byala
94%
Draw or Benkovski Byala
8%

Winning margin

Suvorovo wins by 2+
78%
Benkovski Byala wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Suvorovo 1+ goals
97%
Suvorovo 2+ goals
87%
Suvorovo 3+ goals
69%
Benkovski Byala 1+ goals
37%
Benkovski Byala 2+ goals
8%
Benkovski Byala 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Suvorovo (draw refunded)
98%
Benkovski Byala (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suvorovo at home — creates 3.80, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Benkovski Byala away — creates 0.30, concedes 3.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suvorovo attack 3.80 + Benkovski Byala defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 3.70

Benkovski Byala attack 0.30 + Suvorovo defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Suvorovo scores more
92%
level
6%
Benkovski Byala scores more
2%

Suvorovo at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Suvorovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Suvorovo vs Benkovski Byala

Suvorovo beat Benkovski Byala 8-0 in Third League - Northeast on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Suvorovo.