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Benkovski Byala vs Suvorovo — Third League - Northeast 2018

Benkovski Byala
Benkovski Byala
CANC
00:00
Suvorovo
Suvorovo
3/8/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 18Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Benkovski Byala25%
×Draw24%
Suvorovo51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benkovski Byala
1.14
Suvorovo
1.74

Suvorovo creates 53% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

creates per match

Benkovski Byala
1.37
Suvorovo
1.85

allows per match

Benkovski Byala
1.63
Suvorovo
0.90

finishing

Benkovski Byala+0.00on par
Suvorovo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benkovski Byala ↓

Suvorovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Benkovski Byala or draw
49%
Benkovski Byala or Suvorovo
76%
Draw or Suvorovo
75%

Winning margin

Benkovski Byala wins by 2+
10%
Suvorovo wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Benkovski Byala 1+ goals
68%
Benkovski Byala 2+ goals
32%
Benkovski Byala 3+ goals
11%
Suvorovo 1+ goals
82%
Suvorovo 2+ goals
52%
Suvorovo 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Benkovski Byala (draw refunded)
33%
Suvorovo (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benkovski Byala at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Suvorovo away — creates 1.85, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benkovski Byala attack 1.37 + Suvorovo defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.14

Suvorovo attack 1.85 + Benkovski Byala defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Benkovski Byala scores more
25%
level
24%
Suvorovo scores more
51%

Suvorovo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Suvorovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Benkovski Byala host Suvorovo

March 8, 2020: Benkovski Byala take on Suvorovo in Third League - Northeast. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Benkovski Byala host Suvorovo at Stadion Georgi Benkovski.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.