Sutton Utd 2–1 Stevenage: Result & Stats

Sutton Utd

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stevenage

R. Bennett 63' (pen), 58'

E. List 55'

9/11/2021

League Two · Round 7VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Sutton Utd45%

×Draw28%

Stevenage27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sutton UtdExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.95

Sutton Utd

1.32

Stevenage

0.95

Sutton Utd creates 39% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 100 away

1.41

creates per match

0.80

1.09

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Sutton Utd

1.41

Stevenage

0.80

allows per match

Sutton Utd

1.09

Stevenage

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw

73%

Sutton Utd or Stevenage

72%

Draw or Stevenage

55%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

21%

Stevenage wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

73%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

38%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

15%

Stevenage 1+ goals

61%

Stevenage 2+ goals

25%

Stevenage 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

63%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 69 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.41 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.32

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Sutton Utd defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sutton Utd scores more

45%

level

28%

Stevenage scores more

27%

Sutton Utd at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

R. Bennett

Sutton Utd · F

8.9

Match Events

5'

J. Kizzi← J. Barden

38'

Louis John

47'

Jake Taylor

55'

E. List↳ C. Lines

58'

R. Bennett↳ J. Kizzi

61'

Terence Vancooten

63'

R. BennettPenalty

67'

J. Reid← Bruno Andrade

67'

J. Daly← J. Taylor

75'

W. Randall-Hurren← T. Sho-Silva

80'

C. Dundas← R. Bennett

80'

B. Barry← E. List

89'

Joe Kizzi

90+4'

Ben Coker

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SuttonStevenage

Overview

42%Possession58%

18Total Shots9

1Corners6

7Fouls8

Shots

18Total Shots9

4On Target4

7Off Target4

7Blocked1

11Inside Box7

7Outside Box2

Passing

42%Possession58%

331Total Passes449

214Accurate Passes323

65%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2