Stevenage 3–0 Sutton Utd: Result & Stats

Stevenage

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sutton Utd

L. Norris 70', 48'

D. Sweeney 28'

10/4/2022

League Two · Round 8The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Stevenage47%

×Draw26%

Sutton Utd27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StevenageExpected goals in this matchSutton Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.08

Stevenage

1.52

Sutton Utd

1.08

Stevenage creates 41% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 69 away

1.31

creates per match

1.12

1.04

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Stevenage

1.31

Sutton Utd

1.12

allows per match

Stevenage

1.04

Sutton Utd

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Sutton Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw

73%

Stevenage or Sutton Utd

74%

Draw or Sutton Utd

53%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+

24%

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals

78%

Stevenage 2+ goals

45%

Stevenage 3+ goals

20%

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

66%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

29%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)

64%

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 94 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.31 + Sutton Utd defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sutton Utd attack 1.12 + Stevenage defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Stevenage scores more

47%

level

26%

Sutton Utd scores more

27%

Stevenage at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

L. Norris

Stevenage · F

8.7

Match Events

24'

Craig Eastmond

28'

D. Sweeney↳ A. Gilbey

48'

52'

64'

67'

70'

74'

76'

76'

L. Gambin← E. Boldewijn

76'

K. Kouassi← C. Kendall

77'

Alex Gilbey

80'

K. Thomas← Omar Bugiel

90+5'

Kwame Thomas

90+13'

J. Taylor← J. Roberts

90+13'

K. Smith← L. James-Wildin

90+13'

A. Read← A. Gilbey

90+13'

J. Reeves← M. Bostwick

90'

A. Lovatt← J. Barden

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StevenageSutton

Overview

50%Possession50%

11Total Shots7

2Corners2

12Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots7

7On Target0

3Off Target5

1Blocked2

9Inside Box3

2Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

335Total Passes335

183Accurate Passes194

55%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls16

2Yellow Cards5

3Offsides0