Sutton Utd 0–0 Salford City: Result & Stats

Sutton Utd

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Salford City

2/8/2022

League Two · Round 2VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Sutton Utd39%

×Draw27%

Salford City34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sutton UtdExpected goals in this matchSalford City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.20

Sutton Utd

1.30

Salford City

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 156 away

1.41

creates per match

1.31

1.09

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Sutton Utd

1.41

Salford City

1.31

allows per match

Sutton Utd

1.09

Salford City

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Salford City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Salford City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw

66%

Sutton Utd or Salford City

73%

Draw or Salford City

61%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

17%

Salford City wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

73%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

37%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

14%

Salford City 1+ goals

70%

Salford City 2+ goals

34%

Salford City 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

53%

Salford City (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 69 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.41 + Salford City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Salford City attack 1.31 + Sutton Utd defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sutton Utd scores more

39%

level

27%

Salford City scores more

34%

Sutton Utd at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

T. King

Salford City · G

7.3

Match Events

31'

T. Vassell← A. Eastham

52'

Louis John

72'

B. Wyatt← C. Eastmond

73'

80'

84'

86'

86'

C. McAleny← B. Thomas-Asante

89'

R. Bennett← Omar Bugiel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SuttonSalford

Overview

50%Possession50%

10Total Shots9

7Corners5

12Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots9

2On Target1

6Off Target3

2Blocked5

5Inside Box6

5Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

334Total Passes332

191Accurate Passes176

57%Pass Accuracy53%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1