Salford City 2–0 Sutton Utd: Result & Stats

Salford City

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Sutton Utd

C. McAleny 45+1', 9'

1/14/2023

League Two · Round 27The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Salford City47%

×Draw25%

Sutton Utd27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salford CityExpected goals in this matchSutton Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.13

Salford City

1.57

Sutton Utd

1.13

Salford City creates 39% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 69 away

1.40

creates per match

1.12

1.14

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Salford City

1.40

Sutton Utd

1.12

allows per match

Salford City

1.14

Sutton Utd

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salford City+0.00on par

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Sutton Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Salford City or draw

73%

Salford City or Sutton Utd

75%

Draw or Sutton Utd

53%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+

24%

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals

79%

Salford City 2+ goals

46%

Salford City 3+ goals

21%

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

68%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

31%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)

63%

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.14 · 157 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.40 + Sutton Utd defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.57

Sutton Utd attack 1.12 + Salford City defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Salford City scores more

47%

level

25%

Sutton Utd scores more

27%

Salford City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

C. McAleny

Salford City · F

8.7

Match Events

9'

45+1'

61'

65'

67'

T. Fadahunsi← D. Wilson

67'

D. Ajiboye← E. Boldewijn

71'

C. Morton← J. Lowe

76'

Craig Eastmond

80'

C. Hendry← C. McAleny

85'

H. Beautyman← A. Smith

85'

J. Neufville← W. Randall-Hurren

89'

Ibou Touray

89'

Omar Bugiel

90+3'

K. Kouassi← J. Kizzi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SalfordSutton

Overview

45%Possession55%

9Total Shots14

5Corners8

12Fouls17

Shots

9Total Shots14

5On Target4

0Off Target5

4Blocked5

7Inside Box8

2Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

263Total Passes315

148Accurate Passes205

56%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls17

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3