Sutton Utd 4–3 Port Vale: Result & Stats

Sutton Utd

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Port Vale

10/9/2021

League Two · Round 11VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Sutton Utd40%

×Draw27%

Port Vale32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sutton UtdExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.13

Sutton Utd

1.29

Port Vale

1.13

Sutton Utd creates 14% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 118 away

1.41

creates per match

1.16

1.09

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Sutton Utd

1.41

Port Vale

1.16

allows per match

Sutton Utd

1.09

Port Vale

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw

68%

Sutton Utd or Port Vale

73%

Draw or Port Vale

60%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

18%

Port Vale wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

72%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

37%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

14%

Port Vale 1+ goals

68%

Port Vale 2+ goals

31%

Port Vale 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

55%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 69 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.41 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.29

Port Vale attack 1.16 + Sutton Utd defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sutton Utd scores more

40%

level

27%

Port Vale scores more

32%

Sutton Utd at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff