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Port Vale vs Sutton Utd — League Two 2018

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
3/26/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 39Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Port Vale48%
×Draw25%
Sutton Utd26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.56
Sutton Utd
1.08

Port Vale creates 44% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 69 away

creates per match

Port Vale
1.37
Sutton Utd
1.12

allows per match

Port Vale
1.05
Sutton Utd
1.74

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Sutton Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
74%
Port Vale or Sutton Utd
75%
Draw or Sutton Utd
52%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
25%
Sutton Utd wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
79%
Port Vale 2+ goals
46%
Port Vale 3+ goals
21%
Sutton Utd 1+ goals
66%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
29%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
65%
Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.05 · 115 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.37 + Sutton Utd defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sutton Utd attack 1.12 + Port Vale defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Port Vale scores more
48%
level
25%
Sutton Utd scores more
26%

Port Vale at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Port Vale 2–0 Sutton Utd

Port Vale beat Sutton Utd 2-0 in League Two on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.