Sutton Utd 0–1 Notts County: Result & Stats

Sutton Utd

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Notts County

K. Wootton 90+4'

10/13/2020

League #43 · Round 4The Knights Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sutton Utd42%

×Draw27%

Notts County31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sutton UtdExpected goals in this matchNotts County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.10

Sutton Utd

1.34

Notts County

1.10

Sutton Utd creates 22% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 9 away

1.47

creates per match

0.67

1.53

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Sutton Utd

1.47

Notts County

0.67

allows per match

Sutton Utd

1.53

Notts County

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Notts County+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Notts County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw

69%

Sutton Utd or Notts County

73%

Draw or Notts County

58%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

19%

Notts County wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

74%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

39%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

15%

Notts County 1+ goals

67%

Notts County 2+ goals

30%

Notts County 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

58%

Notts County (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

Notts County away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.47 + Notts County defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.34

Notts County attack 0.67 + Sutton Utd defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sutton Utd scores more

42%

level

27%

Notts County scores more

31%

Sutton Utd at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

68'

Omar Bugiel← I. Olaofe

70'

C. Roberts← Ruben Rodrigues

76'

J. Knowles← E. Boldewijn

88'

W. Randall

89'

C. Dundas← T. Sho-Silva

90+4'

K. Wootton

Sutton

Notts

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Gray

68'▲Omar Bugiel←▼I. Olaofe

89'▲C. Dundas←▼T. Sho-Silva

Sutton Utd substitutes

BugielDundasSimpsonGoodliffeDavis

Manager: N. Ardley

70'▲C. Roberts←▼Ruben Rodrigues

76'▲J. Knowles←▼E. Boldewijn

Notts County substitutes

RobertsKnowlesMcCroryPillingGraham