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Sutton Utd vs Notts County — League Two 2018

Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Notts County
Notts County
8/5/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 1VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Sutton Utd43%
×Draw25%
Notts County31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutton Utd
1.50
Notts County
1.23

Sutton Utd creates 22% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 94 away

creates per match

Sutton Utd
1.41
Notts County
1.38

allows per match

Sutton Utd
1.09
Notts County
1.60

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par
Notts County+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Notts County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw
69%
Sutton Utd or Notts County
75%
Draw or Notts County
57%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+
21%
Notts County wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals
78%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
44%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
19%
Notts County 1+ goals
71%
Notts County 2+ goals
35%
Notts County 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
58%
Notts County (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 69 matches

Notts County away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.60 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.41 + Notts County defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Notts County attack 1.38 + Sutton Utd defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sutton Utd scores more
43%
level
25%
Notts County scores more
31%

Sutton Utd at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Sutton Utd 5–1 Notts County

Sutton Utd beat Notts County 5-1 in League Two on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at VBS Community Stadium in Sutton, Surrey.